(This post originally appeared in my Substack newsletter.)
Why is OC Transpo struggling to deliver consistent, reliable bus service? What is being done to fix it? And how long will it take?
It’s tough right now to be using transit in Ottawa. What I hear from Stittsville residents is that they are generally satisfied with their morning commute, but are reporting a lot of problems in the afternoon rush hour, with buses running late or some runs cancelled. And buses and trains are getting busier as ridership continues to grow.
Transit staff presented a report about bus reliability at Transit Committee last week. Please go read the report here or watch the presentation on YouTube. I’ve summarized and simplified the key points here.
Why is OC Transpo struggling?
The two biggest reasons today for cancelled and late buses is a shortage of buses, and on-street traffic congestion.
Shortage of buses: OC Transpo needs about 519 buses on the road each day to deliver more than 7,500 trips across the network. OC Transpo has an aging bus fleet, with 50% of buses over their useful lifespan, which means they break down more often and spend more time in maintenance. Plus, delivery of the new fleet of electric buses is running behind due to North American manufacturing and supply chain issues.
OC Transpo has 738 buses in its fleet, but on any given day 30% are off the road for maintenance or inspections. Normally, that number should be around 20%. We need 519 buses on the road, but the average available for service so far this fall is 511 buses. Not good. That means runs will be cancelled, and there are limited spares available for when something goes wrong. There’s no margin for error.
Traffic congestion: On-street delays from traffic, weather, collisions, and road closures are nothing new, but it’s particularly bad right now. Many of the bus-only Transitway lanes are not available for buses due to LRT construction, which means buses are mixed with regular traffic. Then there are detours and lane closures that make for longer and more unpredictable commutes.
There’s also the vicious cycle of more and more people moving from transit to cars because of OC Transpo’s reliability issues in recent years. More cars on the road means more traffic that delays buses.
What is being done to fix it?
OC Transpo has been implementing a three-part plan to make sure that:
- There are enough operators and buses on the road to deliver service
- There are buses ready to start every trip on time
- Creating road conditions that allow for consistent travel times
How long will it take?
OC Transpo has had a full roster of operators (drivers) since last fall (good!), but they’re still recruiting mechanics. A Bus Maintenance Action Plan has been underway for a couple of years now to extend the life of older buses and reduce breakdowns.
The biggest improvements will come when we start to see delivery of more electric and diesel buses. Eleven used 40-foot diesel buses will be in service this fall; a total of 350 new e-buses are expected by the end of 2027; and 50 new 60-foot diesel buses will be added to the fleet by early 2027.
As more new buses arrive, OC Transpo can meet the daily service requirements, and older less-reliable buses can be retired from the fleet for good.
In the meantime, there are a number of improvements that will improve reliability in the near-term and medium term:
- OC Transpo continues to monitor and tweak bus schedules based on current conditions and passenger volumes.
- 30 new buses will be on the road by end of year (19 electric buses and 11 diesel buses).
- The opening of LRT Line 1 to Trim Road will improve reliability and commute times for people in the east end. Some of the buses currently in use in the east end (including higher-capacity buses) will be re-deployed to other routes in the city.
- Kichi Zībī Mīkan should re-open to two lanes in both directions in late 2025 / early 2026 which will improve commute times to and from Tunney’s Pasture from Stittsville, Kanata, and Barrhaven.
- LRT to Moodie Drive and Algonquin is on track to open in early 2027.
So, between now and 2027, we’ll see a gradual improvement in fleet availability and condition which will improve reliability. In the same timeframe, new LRT extensions and transit priority measures will help keep transit avoid traffic congestion.
In the future, we’ll need to keep pushing for earlier investment in projects like the Baseline BRT and Carling BRT, and other transit priority projects in the Transportation Master Plan.
Tracking reliability
OC Transpo also provides regular updates on reliability, fleet status, staffing, and other issues at our monthly Transit Committee meetings. The next meeting is in November, when we’ll be tackling the 2026 transit budget.